Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Sweden
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Luxembourg
  • Austria
  • Switzerland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,519$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,833.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,594$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,831.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,831.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,349$ on 2020-04-30

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $213,435$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,957.3}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(211,957.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,543$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,689.0}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,689.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,842$ on 2020-04-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $205,463$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,663.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(202,663.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,967$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,765.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $101,551$ on 2020-04-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $172,481$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(185,092.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,842$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,077.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144,780$ on 2020-04-30

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $167,299$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,369.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,369.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,410$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,422.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(24,422.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,509$ on 2020-04-30

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,512$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41,505.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,811$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,924.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,924.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,576$ on 2020-04-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,092$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,537.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,537.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,586$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,957.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,957.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,501$ on 2020-04-30

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,612$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(782 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,026.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,026.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,232$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,764.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,764.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,994$ on 2020-04-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 89%
Luxembourg recovered 83%
Austria recovered 79%
Switzerland recovered 69%
Malta recovered 69%
Germany recovered 55%
Andorra recovered 53%
Croatia recovered 48%
Denmark recovered 44%
North Macedonia recovered 33%
Spain recovered 24%
Czechia recovered 23%
Slovakia recovered 17%
Italy recovered 6%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,797$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(304 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $117$ on 2020-04-30

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,784$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(519 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,634.2}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,634.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(12.3 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 25.3)}}\) (asimptote \(90.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-04-30

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,452$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,911.1}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,911.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $584$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(53 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{589.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(589.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,961$ on 2020-04-30

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,586$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,792.5}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,792.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,737$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,738.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,738.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,449$ on 2020-04-30